A version of this article appeared in the Express Tribune on February 8, 2011.
Egypt’s political crisis has entered a critical phase. President Hosni Mubarak has refused to back down. So have the protesters occupying Cairo’s central Tahrir (Liberation) Square. They have rejected Mubarak’s vague concessions and are unimpressed by his fast-forwarded succession plan. Mubarak appointed former intelligence chief Omar Suleiman – seen as a necessary stepping-stone for the eventual rise of Mubarak’s son Gamal – to the Vice Presidency, a post that had stood vacant since Mubarak’s own ascent from it 30 years ago. With carrots failing, Mubarak turned to signature brutality. On February 2 the regime mobilized party faithful, plainclothes security-men and paid thugs under the guise of “pro-Mubarak demonstrators” to engage the pro-democracy movement in bloody street battles.
Egypt’s political crisis has entered a critical phase. President Hosni Mubarak has refused to back down. So have the protesters occupying Cairo’s central Tahrir (Liberation) Square. They have rejected Mubarak’s vague concessions and are unimpressed by his fast-forwarded succession plan. Mubarak appointed former intelligence chief Omar Suleiman – seen as a necessary stepping-stone for the eventual rise of Mubarak’s son Gamal – to the Vice Presidency, a post that had stood vacant since Mubarak’s own ascent from it 30 years ago. With carrots failing, Mubarak turned to signature brutality. On February 2 the regime mobilized party faithful, plainclothes security-men and paid thugs under the guise of “pro-Mubarak demonstrators” to engage the pro-democracy movement in bloody street battles.
The mayhem prompted the White House to speak in support of the protesters and demand that Mubarak begin a political transition “now,” emphasizing that “now means yesterday”. Perhaps haunted by the ghosts of Tehran in 1979, Washington realizes that once political transition becomes inevitable it is better managed by military brass from above than forced through the streets. Tellingly, Egypt’s top soldiers, Chief of Army Staff Lt. General Sami Annan, and Defense Minister (and now also deputy Prime Minister) Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi spent all of last week in Washington. They remain close contact with top officials in the American political and military establishments, including with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen.
Meanwhile Mohamed Elbaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Agency turned leader-of-the-moment for the pro-democracy movement, prompted the army to give up its “neutrality” and intervene on the side of the protesters. Though essentially pragmatic, the move also reflects the military’s popular legitimacy. After all, the Egyptian Republic was founded in 1952 in a military coup against the British-backed monarchy. Its legend grew during the Suez Crisis in 1956 when it battled the combined forces of Britain, France and Israel. It took a beating from Israel’s attack in 1967, but in 1973 it turned Egypt into the only Arab country to recover territory – the Sinai Desert – occupied by Israel (Lebanon would become the second in 2000). Though hardly a complete or even an entirely accurate historical record, this view informs popular perceptions of the military in Egypt.
But the Egyptian military is far from a pro-democratic or even a “neutral” force. Rather it is a powerful political entity and the core around which the authoritarian Egyptian state has been wound for many decades. All of the Egyptian Republic’s leaders, including Mubarak, have come from within its ranks. Yet the conundrum faced by the military, and by Washington is that Mubarak’s rule and the political model he represents have become unpalatable in the face of popular unrest. The question for the military is how to effect a transition that will maintain stability, preserve its considerable power and privilege, and deliver the foreign policy that Washington craves and generously rewards.
So far the military has allowed a situation of controlled anarchy. It is already deployed and poised for martial law but is waiting for an opening where enough Egyptians will accept its intervention as necessary. The military will not allow instability indefinitely, again to avoid losing the initiative to the streets. Elberadei’s call for military intervention and a seeming go-ahead from the military’s American patron are quickly preparing the ground for a coup. In fact, a slow-moving military coup, pressing Mubarak towards transition and convincing protesters to vacate the streets, is already in motion.
Though right now the military does not wish to appear Mubarak’s stooge by acting against protesters, it may take a very different tack once it delivers on the peoples’ demand for Mubarak’s ouster. Another key danger for Egypt’s nascent revolution is that many may see Mubarak’s ouster as enough. But Egypt’s real shackles are the military-backed authoritarian system; "Mubarakism" as opposed to Mubarak. A democratic Egypt will require continuing popular pressure during its transition phase against a military that is already anxious to retain the decades-old state structures that are the wellspring of its political strength. Egypt is teetering between military rule and people’s power. Its courageous peoples’ fight for democracy is not about to end soon.
Meanwhile Mohamed Elbaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Agency turned leader-of-the-moment for the pro-democracy movement, prompted the army to give up its “neutrality” and intervene on the side of the protesters. Though essentially pragmatic, the move also reflects the military’s popular legitimacy. After all, the Egyptian Republic was founded in 1952 in a military coup against the British-backed monarchy. Its legend grew during the Suez Crisis in 1956 when it battled the combined forces of Britain, France and Israel. It took a beating from Israel’s attack in 1967, but in 1973 it turned Egypt into the only Arab country to recover territory – the Sinai Desert – occupied by Israel (Lebanon would become the second in 2000). Though hardly a complete or even an entirely accurate historical record, this view informs popular perceptions of the military in Egypt.
But the Egyptian military is far from a pro-democratic or even a “neutral” force. Rather it is a powerful political entity and the core around which the authoritarian Egyptian state has been wound for many decades. All of the Egyptian Republic’s leaders, including Mubarak, have come from within its ranks. Yet the conundrum faced by the military, and by Washington is that Mubarak’s rule and the political model he represents have become unpalatable in the face of popular unrest. The question for the military is how to effect a transition that will maintain stability, preserve its considerable power and privilege, and deliver the foreign policy that Washington craves and generously rewards.
So far the military has allowed a situation of controlled anarchy. It is already deployed and poised for martial law but is waiting for an opening where enough Egyptians will accept its intervention as necessary. The military will not allow instability indefinitely, again to avoid losing the initiative to the streets. Elberadei’s call for military intervention and a seeming go-ahead from the military’s American patron are quickly preparing the ground for a coup. In fact, a slow-moving military coup, pressing Mubarak towards transition and convincing protesters to vacate the streets, is already in motion.
Though right now the military does not wish to appear Mubarak’s stooge by acting against protesters, it may take a very different tack once it delivers on the peoples’ demand for Mubarak’s ouster. Another key danger for Egypt’s nascent revolution is that many may see Mubarak’s ouster as enough. But Egypt’s real shackles are the military-backed authoritarian system; "Mubarakism" as opposed to Mubarak. A democratic Egypt will require continuing popular pressure during its transition phase against a military that is already anxious to retain the decades-old state structures that are the wellspring of its political strength. Egypt is teetering between military rule and people’s power. Its courageous peoples’ fight for democracy is not about to end soon.
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